Sunday, 18 April 2010

Stat Attack: Surrey going in the wrong direction

Another week, another heavy Surrey defeat to contemplate. It almost seemed unfair that the Hove groundstaff had to get out of bed on a Sunday in order to complete the mere formality of a Sussex win this morning. And complete it they did, in style, it took them barely 45 minutes to take the last Surrey wicket and knock off the 33 runs needed for victory. Sussex certainly look too good for this division and completely outclassed us.

So I thought I'd take a "quick" look at Surrey's last 33 matches, i.e. every game since the start of the 2008 season (only the Lancashire game at Old Trafford saw no cricket at all), to see how things are progressing. A few quick stats which I'm sure all Surrey fans are aware of: in those 33 matches, we've won once, against Northamptonshire in 2009, and in games ending in a draw, only 8 times out of 33 have Surrey taken more wickets than the opposition. In all games Surrey take on average 12 opposition wickets, and lose on average 15 of their own. As for run-scoring, Surrey muster on average 347 first innings runs (so 3 bonus points on average), but concede on average 405 runs. Thing were particularly bad in 2009 where the corresponding numbers were 355 and 432 - Surrey conceding, on average a 77 run deficit in the first innings.

If you look at things graphically it doesn't make for happy reading either, the graph below shows first innings runs scored in every game by both Surrey (the blue line) and those conceded by Surrey (the red line):


So you can see that early on in the graph, around the start of the 2008 season when, incidentally we were playing in the first division against the likes of Lancashire, Durham and first division Sussex, the lines are relatively close (though rarely in our favour).  Thereafter however the lines start to diverge and save for a brief period in the middle of the '09 season when captain fantastic Stewart Walters was scoring runs for fun, the lines are becoming increasingly far apart!

The next graph shows graphically the number of wickets Surrey have taken in matches (the blue line) and the number of Surrey wickets to fall in matches (the red line):


Unsurprisingly, the lines in this graph follow along similar lines, with things looking particularly bad since the game against Essex at Chelmsford last season - 136 out of a possible 140 Surrey wickets have fallen to the opposition in those seven games and Surrey have taken 76 - barely half of the opposition wickets possible.

So not only have they been utterly rubbish, consistently, for the past two-and-a-bit seasons, but they are (improbably!) getting worse!  I know its early days in Hamilton-Brown's captaincy so its not time yet to damn him, but it just shows the enormity of the task he has on his hands!

18 comments:

manutd24 said...

Interesting graphs, evidence of how crap Surrey have been! The 'Lions' have the Unicorns in two weeks time (40 league) and I'm not even sure they can beat them (that team is also crap)!

This revamped Surrey side also look worse than last season! Still early days but signs are not good. The bowling is a major concern.

Dernbach: Has he ever gotten a five wicket haul?

Nel: Not who he was for South Africa

Schofield & Batty: Poor averages last season in the longer format.

Then there's King, Linley and Meaker.

GreenJJ said...

I was banking on the Unicorns (worst name ever) game being a sure-fire win, I'm not so sure any more!

The bowling is a concern, Dernbach has had a 6-for before, and I'm keen to see him succeed because believe me he's one of the few who looks like they care, he really gets stuck in, so I think we should give him a chance.

Nel's performances have been worrying, very short of form (ability?), certainly not the player he was. Schoey is more batsman than bowler, Batty is just an honest pro, not much more unfortunately. King has shown promise, likewise Meaker, Linley is pure rubbish.

manutd24 said...

That's all part and parcel of being a Surrey fan these days!

Unicorns (yes, worst name ever) have ex-Somerset batsman Wes Durston (and reject Chris Murtagh), someone who played well in the Champions League. I'm not too sure why they would release him; maybe Surrey should have signed him! Not too sure where I'm going with this...

Any chance Rao's stay could be extended?

GreenJJ said...

I would guess he might stay a little longer than expected, so much is up in the air with the Chawla situation, will he-won't he? And there's the situation with Vettori to resolve, and Lara to think of, too much going on! Chris Murtagh was so dreadful for us, I hope he hasn't become an overnight sensation!

greyblazer said...

Rao, Nel, Dernbach, Batty and Meaker won't take many wickets for sure. Surrey should have somehow poached Rana from Sussex as he is suited to the wickets in Oval.

GreenJJ said...

Indeed greyblazer, in fact I called for Surrey to consider Rana here!:

http://surreycricketblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/where-are-surreys-t20-cup-signings.html

After he put in some good performances in the Aussie Big Bash, he'd have been a great signing. Oh well, another that got away!

Anonymous said...

Good analysis, can't help but wonder if Chris Adams has seen similar stats... maybe you should send them in?

MH

manutd24 said...

Surrey are playing their next Championship[ game at Whitgift - not good news. We need a flat wicket like Oval to avoid losing any more...

GreenJJ said...

I'd like to think that Adams is aware of the slide, but I could well be wrong! Maybe I'll email my old mate Gus.

Whitgift used to be a happy hunting ground for Surrey, now its an opportunity for Worcs to beat us inside three days! Solanki and Jaques have got plenty of runs in them and Richardson was surprisingly effective for them in their first game. Richard Jones looks decent for them as well. Ever hopeful, but not confident!

manutd24 said...

I don't think Solanki is fit...I saw him do IPL coverage for ITV4 on Saturday. I think Worcs played on the same day, so that's good news...

Anonymous said...

The best thing Adams can do for us is to get into his loft, dig out his gear and open the batting.

GreenJJ said...

No Solanki? Bonus, mind you still Derbyshire battered us with an Australian batsman with an FC average over 50 who their selectors have largely seen fit to ignore for test cricket, so why can't Worcestershire?!

And if we're signing Lara at 41, we've already got Ramps at 40, Adams at 39 could be the youngster of our middle order! Blimey....

manutd24 said...

Rogers hit 3 runs in two innings against Leicestershire.

Rogers hit 340 runs, including a not out, against Surrey.

Personally, I hope Lara doesn't come to Surrey. He can't play Twenty20's. If it were for the longer format, then yes.

GreenJJ said...

Its becoming increasingly obvious how bare the batting cupboard is at Surrey, and for that matter the cupboard generally! If we want to drop someone now, we'll have to bring in someone inexperienced, so Lara in the four day side wouldn't be the worst thing. Agree on T20s though, its purely a commercial decision, which is disappointing.

Derbyshire's result against Leicestershire brings in to focus how average a team they are, and yet they battered us completely. So depressing!

Rich said...

And Brown's out for 6 weeks isn't he? That means were stuck with Spriegel and Harinath at the top of the order for a while....do you think there's anyone else in our team capable of opening?!

GreenJJ said...

Yep, well 3-6 weeks but I bet it'll be longer rather than shorter. Shame because in the limited overs stuff he was becoming increasinlgly effective, despite still not being able to pass 50 regularly enough.

Spriegel and Harinath are two good young cricketers, but they don't yet have the ability to change gears. Every time they open they are so cautious, with good reason, but then they get stuck in a rut, and try to hit themselves out of it and it doesn't work, they just get out.

There's no one else, that's why pretty much everyone was calling for us to sign a proven opener (Carberry, Key etc.), there's no solution, apart from possibly shifting Afzaal, but given his footwork (or lack of it) this season, opening is the last place you'd want him.

There is Laurie Evans who was given a few innings and quickly discarded last season, might be worth a go. There's also a kid named Seren Waters lurking in the seconds I think who scored 75 opening for Kenya against a strong South African side last year, I thought he *might* get a chance this year, but he seems to have dropped off the radar...so in short...we don't have many options!

Rich said...

I've heard of Seren Walters, I do remember seeing him do well in that game you mentioned. We can't carry on as we are....15/0 off 17 overs, then we lose a wicket, the bowlers have their backs up and there is a whole world of pressure on Ramps. We need him coming in where he can look to score runs, not try to preserve his wicket. I've seen Evans play and didn't think too much to be honest, but at least he's more aggressive than Harinath / Spriegel.

GreenJJ said...

Walters is in the squad for the Worcs game, they'll drop Schoey and go with the extra bat. I would actually question whether Schofield might be a better bat than Walters, but there you go. I would like to see Davies at seven to give the tail a bit of backbone, but that's not going to happen.

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